How do you tell confirmation from coincidence?

Decide what result you’re looking for before you do the spell, then write it down along with a reasonable time frame. Check later for what happened, including what didn’t. That won’t prove a cause, but it can help separate a clear result from a pattern you noticed after the fact.

Some things are too vague or outside your control to make a useful test. It’s okay to leave those uncertain rather than forcing them into a yes or no.

You can treat a coincidence as meaningful to you without treating it as conclusive evidence that the spell caused it. Those are different claims. If your practice includes signs, you might see them as part of your spiritual interpretation while still making room for chance and ordinary explanations.

Confidence doesn’t have to mean being certain every working will affect events. It can mean trusting your reasons for practicing while staying honest about what you can’t know.

When you’re worn out, every uncertain result can start to feel like a verdict on the whole practice. Taking a break, doing something simpler, or setting aside outcome-focused work for a while may be more useful than pushing yourself to feel confident.

You could also look back at what still feels meaningful or grounding, without requiring it to produce a particular result. Resting doesn’t have to mean you’ve lost your way.