Could fertilizer disruption really cause a parasite outbreak?

It is a possible chain of events in the abstract, but each link needs evidence. A fertilizer shortage would not by itself show that growers switched to untreated human waste, or that any such use contaminated the crops tied to an outbreak.

To support the claim, investigators would need to trace the affected produce and identify a credible contamination route, alongside evidence about what inputs or water were used. Without that, the war connection is speculation rather than an established explanation.

The contamination mechanism is more plausible than the geopolitical conclusion. Cyclospora can spread through food or water contaminated with fecal material, so contaminated irrigation water or poor handling could be relevant. But that does not establish that fertilizer was involved, much less that a conflict caused the contamination.

Also, a parasite being shed in feces is not the same as any use of treated organic material automatically creating an outbreak. Treatment, handling, timing, and the specific route of exposure all matter.

I’d separate the two questions: is there a documented fertilizer supply disruption, and is there evidence that it changed farming practices connected to this outbreak? A price increase or shipping disruption might raise concerns, but it cannot answer the second question on its own.

Look for a public investigation that names the implicated food or water source and explains how it was linked to cases. If that information is missing, the responsible answer is that the cause is uncertain, not that the war caused it.